This summer, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements. “To that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms.”
“With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. These factors are part of the longer term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development - known as the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes - which have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development. El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors - some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it - driving this year's overall forecast for a near-normal season.Īfter three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
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